Quick Wednesday, Thursday and Friday Numbers
Posted by ~Ray @ 2008-06-19 07:08:25
Its been a busy week. One interesting thing was a well-priced listing we open on the Westside. It was a prime candidate for our apartment re-habber but being well-priced we expected multiple offers. As a buyer that means you have to really do your numbers and commit to a firm ceiling price and then take care of all the regular offer logisitics (financing minutes bylaws inspection etc) so that you can go in with few or no subjects. We offered 6% over list but came in back up. We’ll undergo to monitor what happens with the sale (and other comps) to see if we were cause to be perceived to stand pat. (We went through this in North Van as some may recall and soon after the neighbouring property sold for almost exactly what we offered when we lost the multiple perhaps indicating that the buyer had overpaid somewhat).
Anyway. Friday we had 170 new listings and 177 sales for a sell/list of 104.12% Inventory was 10,957 and over 90’s were 2,569 or 23.45%.
This market is like a marathoner that starts sprinting just when you think after running for days on straight it should drop dead. Or its like that guy that cracks open a new bottle of Smirnoff at 3am just when you think the party is over.
I used to be a real estate salesman and I can tell you late Nov. but especially the first 2 weeks in Dec is the best time of year to buy. Usually those with property up for sale so close to Christmas are desperate to sell. The closer to Christmas the better.
It is a fact that many speculators realize now they made a big mistake by playing this market and want to get out. The champagne-popping days are over.
Despite all the brouhaha about a hot RE market it is clear very little is moving (down 13% from same Q measure year) prices are slipping and poised for a major correction or maybe an outright crash. It is quite normal for sellers to stubbornly cling to their high prices not wanting to move but there is a way to make them face free market forces.
Usually stink-bidding a property is hard for any individual to do on his own since going face to face with a seller who may be insulted is a situation you might not emotionally be able to handle.
This is why you should employ an agent and let him do the work for you. Your agent is obligated to take ALL offers to the vendor. If your agent refuses to cooperate (and most will want to discourage you from this approach) you can remind him a complaint to the BC Real Estate Council might be in order. Be nice about it though and remind your agent it’s your money that’s on the line. And besides what’s so unusual of you being as stubborn (or bone-headed) about price as the seller?
This approach is beat for people who are just “sitting on the fence” not really needing to get into the market but at this point in the RE cycle it’s good strategy.
As the Victorian-era poet Robert Browning said: “A man’s reach must exceed his grasp or what’s a heaven for?”
Concerto “Year or so ago comment was “Yaletown Park and Spectrum are huge small box developments that ordain cause oversupply upon completion”. “prices will drop” etc etc. Is it just me or did nothing like that happen ?”Actually I think it is happening a lot of those are listed for rent available immediately. I would imagine most purchasers decided that they would sell at peak toughen (spring) contract until then. How being unable to contract for 4 to 6 months is going to affect their staying power should be interesting. I suspect we’ll see a flod of listings in February as they decide to try to have an early prime toughen suffering from 100% subsidy thru the winter toughen. What I see is exactly what I expected a dead winter season with all the new owners expecting to reap a 15% wind fall come spring!
Therefore. (dog #1 through dog #7) should furnish Newsflash and Rob a call and beg them to find a good investment property before they change state forever priced out of the market.
I would like to know… All I can think of is wet and soggy… leaky and those are old news… Please enlighten us all with your wisdom beyond your years…. BTW if your in your 20’s… you should sit down and listen to folks that know exceed
Hi. I rarely post here but am always watching. I have a request. I am currently writing an essay on Powell River as a single industry town. I am focussing on its growth as a retirement community. I need figures for the average price of a single family home for each year for the last ten years. I have tried searching but nothing comes up. Could anyone help? Thanks
“Year or so ago comment was “Yaletown Park and Spectrum are huge small box developments that will cause oversupply upon completion”. “prices will drop” etc etc. Is it just me or did nothing like that come about ?”
The Yaletown Park completions were a big topic of the past. The bears claimed this would be the turning point in the merchandise. They were talking about in 2004 and 2005. After all these units completed (close to 800 plus 400 at Hudson) all the negative cash flow investors would bail. Or if they tried to rent them out it would flood the rental market and create rents to drop. Either way the market was as good as done according to the bears and this would be the turning point. We heard similar things about Spectrum later on from others.
So what happened? Yaletown Park was completed in move 2006. We saw very few units come up for sale (about 10%). The units that were for sale were snapped up right away. The units that were rented out were rented for preserve rents. All the people who bought at the presales were cash flow positive. And as we all know the market continued it’s upward trend.
Now we have Spectrum completing. Again rents undergo continued to rise and the Spectrum investors are again change flow positive. Spectrum IMO is one of the worst DT locations stuck on an island between the viaducts and GM place on top of the only big box store in the core. Still they seem to be getting decent rents for the units.
I guess the bears will have to pick a new big project or event to focus on as the “turning point”. Lets pick a new one just for fun now the whole credit crunch thing seems to have gone by the wayside.
A quick analyse on Craigslist shows many Spectrum assignments for sale with 563′ one bedrooms for sale at $379,000. Craigslist also shows many of these same units offered for contract at $1,250 per month.
Let’s assume a conservative investor with 25% down and a 25 year mortgage at 5.75%. Mortgage payments alone are $1,776 per month with little of that going to principal in the first bring together of years. Add taxes and strata fees (we’ll forget maintenance seeing as its new) and you’re well over $2,200 per month.
If you re-read what was said above it mentioned the people that bought at Spectrum will be cash-flow positive not the ones that are buying now. That condo you listed at $379,000 was probably bought for $225,000 when 1st offered or there abouts at the current rent of $1250/month which seems low it is not cash-flow negative. With rents going up a conservative 3% a year within a couple of years that investment ordain be paying a healthy divendend.
First will current selling prices at $379,000 an original purchase price of $225,000 would be 68.44% appreciation. Nothing’s impossible I suppose but this seems more than a bit of a stretch.
Even if we assume a $225,000 purchase price however the mortgage payment using the same parameters in my original post would be $1,054 per month. Add strata fees and taxes and you are comfort not cash flow positive at $1,250 per month in rent. The rent may seem low but that is what several investors are asking today; ergo its the current market.
“Therefore. (dog #1 through dog #7) should give Newsflash and Rob a call and beg them to find a good investment property before they become forever priced out of the market”
no be to be afraid of being priced out of the market because the RE chihuahua dogs are already well planned in the market; thank you for your concern by the way. How about you? still feeling lonely and sour of the market? exceed to make that “spycho” counselling very soon!Just a prediction on Nov: The second best on Record!
“How being unable to rent for 4 to 6 months is going to affect their staying power should be interesting.”
Some people rent out furnished units on a monthly basis (hotel style) so they can stage for sale quickly. There are agencies that will purport to rent furnished units out for you for a fee. Better than nothing craigslist has a few of these but I don’t know how successful they are.
On that note there are lots of amateur landlords out there so don’t be surprised if they make all the usual (and unusual) mistakes that the pros know how to avoid. change surface if the merchandise stays strong there will be investors that will get burned. I think there will be more of these cases around in the next few years than before.
I guessed at the $225K figure as I don’t know what the 1bds went for. I do know the 2brs at Specturm were offered at $299K hence the anticipate at $225 shouldn’t be too far off. Also the comment at onlt 15 lights being on for all the towers most of them haven’t been issued their occupancy permits yet. Again just playing devils advocate here.
Jesse;”Some people rent out furnished units on a monthly basis (hotel style) so they can stage for sale quickly. There are agencies that will purport to contract furnished units out for you for a fee. Better than nothing craigslist has a few of these but I don’t know how successful they are.” Most if not all of the ones I see at Spectrum are asking for a 1 year lease with an option for a 6 month lease. Owner know one month vacancy is 10% less rent for the year. Spectrum doesn’t appear to be in the furnished hotel room syndrome. However a great place to see those kind of rentals is which I have watched for the past three months. In that time out of 2000 listings for downtown they are now at 25% vacancy from no vacancy in August. Absolutely nothing has moved. There incredibly high rents appear to have to pay the entire go for the owner in the summer four months. If you work the math these are also losing for their investors. (Multiply the rent x 12 and 1/3 of that is the annual return)! As a side note Spectrum 3 and 4 are just starting move ins this week so look at the lights in December for a better idea.
I’d probably look at Jan-Feb for the “lights on” test as one light lit is another extinguished — there is typically overlap especially with initial occupancy where the occupancy date can slip and one needs to keep renting until the move-in date is guaranteed.
“flipper city! low end kitchens godawful hall carpets only 2 elevators per bldg.” Agreed I was thru 3 and 4 a while back on business. Basically low end spec quality lousy location. Try two treadmills for 900+ residents! Two elevators means one as with the number of suites one will all ways be tied up moving furniture. Hallway layout means if the move is on your floor you might not be able to get out. True price should be around $125,000.00 for a 1 bedroom which is what it will be in two years!
British Columbia’s economy created over 55,800 new jobs in the past 12 months to October 2007. Of those. 48,600 or 87% were full-time. Sustained strong growth of employment has also contributed to a steady net influx of people from other provinces and from outside the country. At 4.4%. British Columbia’s unemployment rate is near the 20-year-low it reached in March 2007.
Brian this is not news this is industry propaganda. Consider the website a construction company backed by RE industry quotes.
“Finally despite the weakness in the U. S.. China’s insatiable appetite for British Columbia’s resources should mean that the province’s net exports will continue to alter to growth in the future.”
This is complete rubbish. China does not have an ‘insatiable appetite’ for BC exports. Reed construction could not have possibly verified this. As I posted last week. BC only exports what was it. 4.5% to China. I think it was $1.5 billion.
advance it mentions 13 000 jobs created in construction out of 55 000 jobs over the last year were in construction alone. If this is correct almost a quarter of all new jobs are in construction. Sounds desire California a couple of years ago.
A lot of Canadian banks undergo taken some write-off with regards to their subprime exposure. But if you check their stock prices they are no where near their 52 week low quite unlike their cousins in the US.
Bank of montreal trades up today. FYI. That speaks truth about the amount of subprime exposure for the canadian banks and also explains the continued boom in the canadian real estate market.
“Economic uncertainty in the U. S spurred by the housing recession and tightening credit markets has perhaps knocked the American who would spend $500,000. Kelly said.
Americans playing in the $1-million-plus merchandise are still interested in Whistler but proceeding with a bit more care he added.
“They definitely have to have something before the Olympics whether it’s rental or purchase,” Kelly said. “Americans are big Olympic boosters they always have been and they want to be part of [the 2010 Games].” ”
Yes. Americans are big Olympic boosters. But how many are going to buy just because of the Olympics. These $1 Million plus players didn’t get rich buying on hype.
I remember lots of populate saying Americans were buying places en masse a couple of years ago. I had quoted Landcor indicating this was not true but not everyone was convinced … it still appears they were not majors movers ever during this boom.
Landcor didn’t even mentioned non-resident Iranians and Chinese since there purchases in BC were not significant. Lots of others thought there was proxy buying and that their purchasing was/is rampant. Maybe if one had lots of exposure to one market like Coal Harbour this might be true but I dont’ know since there is no data showing this.
TORONTO. March 2 (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Canada (RY. TO: Quote. Profile. Research) posted a 27.6 percent rise in its first-quarter profit on Friday as a prove of strong earnings across all of its business divisions particularly in its U. S segment.
Canada’s biggest bank said it earned C$1.49 billion or C$1.14 a share for the three months ending Jan. 31.
VANCOUVER. British Columbia (Reuters) - Bank of Nova Scotia became the latest Canadian bank on Tuesday to warn of writedowns in its fourth-quarter results because of turmoil in the U. S subprime mortgage market.
Scotiabank. Canada’s second-biggest bank said it will lop C$135 million ($141 million) after tax off the value of its nonbank asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) and structured credit investments.
The portion of Canada’s ABCP market that is not run by the country’s big banks ground to a halt this summer when buyers dried up on fears the debt investments were exposed to the U. S subprime market. Companies holding the paper as investments have been cutting up to 15 percent off its value.
Scotiabank’s announcement came several hours after Royal Bank of Canada said it will take a C$160-million after-tax charge in the same quarter for investments tied to the subprime market where some analysts expect at least one in every four risky home loans could go into default.
We probably haven’t seen the full extent of the write-downs but if my math is right (someone please check it) RB made a Q1 profit about 9 times bigger than the create verbally drink. Does that make the write-down big or small? I’ll let you decide and add only that I wouldn’t label the write down insignificant and smaller losses in one area of a profitable balance sheet undergo probably hammered other stock values even more. Aside from it looking scary and moving fast (sorry. Priced Out but what’s new about that?) can anyone hammer some numbers into perspective?
(Side say: I read today a forecast for 4 rate cuts from BoC. Remember what I said about the CBs thinking they can bring home the bacon inflation coco? I know time will tell but I see increasing liquidity on the horizon).
If banks could manage subprime writedowns why would they increase mortgage rates in October due to the credit crunch and offer less off a discount off the posted mortgage rates more recently? I guess they want to maintain high profits and please the shareholders after all?
The consumer will pay for banks bad investments whether that is in the form of higher credit card interest rates higher owe rates less of a discount off posted mortgage rates higher bank fees borrowing restrictions etc. etc.
That said are you really seeing significant moves in mortgage rates? My latest rate sheet has everything from 1-5 years in a narrow band: 5.55% to 5.94%. analyse that to Feb this year:1 yr = 5.2%2 yr = 5.25%3 yr = 5.3%4 yr = 5.3%5 yr = 5.19%
and September of ‘06:1 yr = 5.1% (unchanged from September 14 was 5.25% August 23rd)2 yr = 5.2% (unchanged from September 14 was 5.3% August 23rd)3 yr = 5.3% (unchanged from September 14 was 5.3% August 23rd)4 yr = 5.35% (unchanged from September 14 was 5.4% August 23rd)5 yr = 5.28% (was 5.3% September 14 and 5.35% August 23rd)
Can’t find it online at the FP but in the paper itself. FP2. Best of the FP Netwoork you’ll find Ted Carmicheal. JP Morgan Chase Canada’s chief economist making the label. You guessed it: he is styled one of the most bearish forecasters on Bay Street. He thinks 4 cuts of 25 basis points apiece will not undercut attempts to act core inflation in the 2% range.
In other news PMI owe Insurance was approved Thursday for the lucrative insured mortgage arena. CMHC a crown corporation has long dominated the sector with about 70% market share. They’ve been giving up ground (not too hard to do when you go away from a monopoly position and then have to compete) to Genworth and AIG. Another player makes for more competition and that gives Canadians who demand mortgage insurance more choice which is a good thing. While it reduces CMHC’s access toe asy money it should also calm those who fear that the Canadian taxpayer is underwriting bad loans through CMHC. Who can really argue against privatizing bad loans?
XHTML: You can use these tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q have in mind=""> <strike> <strong> [ADVERTHERE]Related article:
http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/11/16/quick-wednesday-thursday-and-friday-numbers/
0 Comments:
No comments have been posted yet!
|
